← Primera Division 2022-23 · Thu, May 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 52% | 48% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 22% | 28% | 4.40 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 48% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Bryan Gil · Sevilla FC |
| 29' | ⚽ (og) | Karim Rekik · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 43' | ⚽ | Javi Puado · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bryan Gil · Sevilla FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Denis Suárez · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Ocampos · Sevilla FC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Pape Gueye · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vinícius Souza · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 4.20 |
| coach days | 64.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1722.52 | 1550.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.19 | -12.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 41.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 2.94 | 4.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 1.04 | -1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 29.75 |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 2.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.20 |