← Primera Division 2022-23 · Wed, May 3, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 34% | 38% | 2.86 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.93 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 33% | 30% | 3.03 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF +0 | 52% | 1.91 |
| RC Celta de Vigo +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 64% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 33% | 36% | 2.98 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 7' | 🟨 | Stefan Mitrović · Getafe CF |
| 21' | 🟨 | Joseph Aidoo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 24' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Javi Galán · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 60' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Luca De La Torre · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 70' | 🟨 | Juan Iglesias · Getafe CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Joseph Aidoo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 77' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 🟥 |
| Joseph Aidoo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gastón Álvarez · Getafe CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Haris Seferović · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 32.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1573.71 | 1633.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.68 | -20.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| league points | 31.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 3.15 | 3.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | 0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -1.32 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.72 | 25.24 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.85 |