← Primera Division 2022-23 · Mon, May 1, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 36% | 33% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 35% | 39% | 2.83 | value: +10% |
| Mallorca win | 29% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca +0.25 | 57% | 1.71 |
| Athletic Club +0.25 | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 70% | 61% | 1.38 | fair |
| Over | 30% | 39% | 3.22 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 15' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 17' | 🟨 | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 29' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
| 40' | 🟨 | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 58' | ⚽ | Kang-in Lee · Mallorca |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nico Williams · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Mallorca |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Visit Mallorca Estadi |
| coach days | 426.00 | 334.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1605.97 | 1695.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.98 | 16.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 40.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 4.98 | 3.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.29 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.60 | 26.92 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.21 |