← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 30, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 57% | 62% | 1.70 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.08 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 19% | 15% | 5.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid +0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Valladolid +0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 60% | 1.85 | value: +11% |
| Under | 47% | 40% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Monchu · Valladolid |
| 20' | ⚽ | Nahuel Molina · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 24' | ⚽ | José María Giménez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 38' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 40' | 🟨 | Mario Hermoso · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Cyle Larin · Valladolid |
| 44' | 🟨 | Kike Pérez · Valladolid |
| 74' | ⚽ | Sergio Escudero · Valladolid |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Joaquín Fernández · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 29.00 | 4168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1626.62 | 1904.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.33 | 11.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| league points | 35.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 3.06 | 4.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 1.11 |
| solidity v1 | -2.32 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 28.02 |
| state index | 0.03 | 1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 0.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.97 |