← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 30, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 37% | 38% | 2.69 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Cadiz +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 61% | 1.49 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 39% | 2.79 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Escalante · Cadiz |
| 46' | ⚽ | Sergi Guardiola · Cadiz |
| 51' | ⚽ | Samuel Lino · Valencia CF |
| 60' | 🟨 | Fede San Emeterio · Cadiz |
| 75' | 🟨 | Samu Castillejo · Valencia CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ilaix Moriba · Valencia CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Anthony Lozano · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfonso Espino · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Cadiz |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cadiz | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla |
| 🟨 |
| Jeremías Ledesma · Cadiz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 484.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1630.17 | 1653.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.56 | -3.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.62 |
| league points | 32.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 4.77 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | -0.59 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.77 | 26.82 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.18 |