← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 29, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 85% | 77% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 15% | 9.25 | value: +43% |
| Almeria win | 5% | 8% | 21.00 | value: +65% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −2.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Almeria −2.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 75% | 68% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 25% | 32% | 4.33 | value: +39% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 17' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 37' | 🟨 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lázaro · Almeria |
| 47' | ⚽ | Rodrygo · Real Madrid CF |
| 61' | ⚽ | Lucas Robertone · Almeria |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lázaro · Almeria |
| 67' | 🟨 | Houboulang Mendes · Almeria |
| 74' | 🟨 | Eduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days | 697.00 | 758.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1878.15 | 1589.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.03 | 13.69 |
| eye test v1 | 2.19 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 65.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 23.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.37 | -0.44 |
| solidity v1 | 0.14 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.58 | 23.29 |
| state index | 1.10 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.77 | 1.01 |