← Primera Division 2022-23 · Tue, Apr 25, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 58% | 71% | 1.70 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.30 | fair |
| Girona win | 19% | 10% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona +1 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Real Madrid CF +1 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 66% | 1.61 | value: +6% |
| Under | 40% | 34% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Valentín Castellanos · Girona |
| 24' | ⚽ | Valentín Castellanos · Girona |
| 34' | ⚽ | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Arnau Martínez · Girona |
| 46' | ⚽ | Valentín Castellanos · Girona |
| 62' | ⚽ | Valentín Castellanos · Girona |
| 65' | 🟨 | Éder Militão · Real Madrid CF |
| 85' | ⚽ | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Estadi Municipal de Montilivi |
| coach days | 663.00 | 693.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1651.47 | 1958.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.65 | -10.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 2.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.10 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.85 |
| league points | 38.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 3.04 | 2.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 22.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 1.90 |
| solidity v1 | 0.49 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 28.18 | 27.44 |
| state index | 0.58 | 1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 2.53 |