← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 22, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 40% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +4% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 61% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 39% | 2.56 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 11' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 16' | ⚽ | Juan Miranda · Real Betis Balompié |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jon Moncayola · CA Osasuna |
| 43' | 🟨 | Aridane Hernández · CA Osasuna |
| 70' | ⚽ | Guido Rodríguez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kike García · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 13 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1786.00 | 994.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1599.98 | 1709.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.83 | -27.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 38.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.71 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.60 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.21 | 28.56 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.65 | 1.18 |