← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 16, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos del Cerro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 45% | 47% | 2.21 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 26% | 25% | 3.71 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Sevilla FC −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 61% | 1.70 | value: +3% |
| Over | 43% | 39% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Lucas Ocampos · Sevilla FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Joan Jordán · Sevilla FC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Loïc Badé · Sevilla FC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Suso · Sevilla FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | 🟥 | Ilaix Moriba · Valencia CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| coach days |
| 74.00 |
| 46.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1591.68 | 1693.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.56 | -9.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| league points | 27.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | 0.28 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 29.38 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 0.64 |