← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 65% | 70% | 1.50 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.87 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 15% | 10% | 7.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid −1.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Villarreal CF −1.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 56% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 44% | 2.39 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Selim Amallah · Valladolid |
| 30' | 🟨 | Alfonso Pedraza · Villarreal CF |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jawad El Yamiq · Valladolid |
| 41' | 🟨 | Selim Amallah · Valladolid |
| 56' | 🟨 | Monchu · Valladolid |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jordi Masip · Valladolid |
| 74' | ⚽ | Étienne Capoue · Villarreal CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kenedy · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kike Pérez · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 1018.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1788.57 | 1609.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.28 | -10.19 |
| eye test v1 | 1.25 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 47.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.71 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.16 | -0.23 |
| solidity v1 | 0.33 | -2.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.25 | 24.33 |
| state index | 1.18 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 2.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 0.98 |