← Primera Division 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: José Munuera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 48% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.26 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 22% | 25% | 4.53 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 62% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 38% | 2.58 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ (og) | Aridane Hernández · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 43' | ⚽ | Isi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 47' | 🟨 | Kike García · CA Osasuna |
| 48' | 🟨 | Álvaro García · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 66' | ⚽ | Moi Gómez · CA Osasuna |
| 88' | 🟨 | Moi Gómez · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | David García · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| coach days |
| 986.00 |
| 1778.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1595.78 | 1608.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.98 | -20.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 37.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.69 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.66 | 26.11 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 0.73 |