← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 57% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 17% | 18% | 5.80 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Cadiz −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 50% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 50% | 2.19 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | José Mari · Cadiz |
| 38' | 🟥 | Sergio Canales · Real Betis Balompié |
| 43' | 🟨 | Fede San Emeterio · Cadiz |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ayoze Pérez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 51' | 🟨 | William Carvalho · Real Betis Balompié |
| 52' | 🟨 | Juan Miranda · Real Betis Balompié |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz |
| 59' | ⚽ | Chris Ramos · Cadiz |
| 60' | 🟥 | Aitor Ruibal · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| coach days |
| 981.00 |
| 463.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1725.79 | 1573.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.94 | 1.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.71 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| league points | 45.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 61.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 6.80 | 7.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | -1.57 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.56 | 30.05 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.12 |