← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 9, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 38% | 32% | 2.59 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 40% | 2.94 | value: +17% |
| Mallorca win | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca −0.25 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Valladolid −0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 61% | 1.46 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 39% | 2.92 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Abdón Prats · Mallorca |
| 10' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Valladolid |
| 33' | ⚽ | Kike Pérez · Valladolid |
| 38' | 🟨 | Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Mallorca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Martin Valjent · Mallorca |
| 53' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 56' | 🟨 | Lucas Rosa · Valladolid |
| 58' | ⚽ | Manu Morlanes · Mallorca |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Mallorca |
| 68' | ⚽ | Selim Amallah · Valladolid |
| 73' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla |
| 🟨 |
| Manu Morlanes · Mallorca |
| 86' | ⚽ | Monchu · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cyle Larin · Valladolid |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 8.00 | 404.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1610.55 | 1628.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.85 | -26.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 28.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 8.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -0.85 |
| solidity v1 | -2.70 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.49 | 27.23 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.43 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.73 |