← Primera Division 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 7, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentín Pizarro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 41% | 46% | 2.44 | value: +12% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 30% | 20% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.30 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Sevilla FC −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 51% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 49% | 2.31 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Pape Gueye · Sevilla FC |
| 13' | 🟨 | Carles Pérez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 19' | 🟨 | Pape Gueye · Sevilla FC |
| 19' | 🟥 | Pape Gueye · Sevilla FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Youssef En-Nesyri · Sevilla FC |
| 43' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Franco Cervi · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Marcos Acuña · Sevilla FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alex Telles · Sevilla FC |
| 89' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.61 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| ⚽ |
| Miguel Rodríguez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marcos Acuña · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Paciência · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 37.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1692.03 | 1653.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.64 | 40.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | — |
| league points | 31.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 5.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.49 | 26.04 |
| state index | 0.70 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.66 |