← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 2, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 64% | 63% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.58 | fair |
| Almeria win | 15% | 15% | 6.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Almeria −1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 51% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 49% | 2.22 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Léo Baptistão · Almeria |
| 7' | ⚽ | Srđan Babić · Almeria |
| 10' | ⚽ | Haris Seferović · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 31' | 🟨 | Arnau Puigmal · Almeria |
| 32' | ⚽ | Arnau Puigmal · Almeria |
| 42' | ⚽ | Carles Pérez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Carles Pérez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 62' | 🟨 | Fernando Martínez · Almeria |
| 74' | 🟨 | Samú Costa · Almeria |
| 82' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 82' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Abanca-Balaídos |
| 🟨 |
| Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gabri Veiga · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 152.00 | 731.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1657.49 | 1575.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.92 | -19.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| league points | 34.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 14.77 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | 0.91 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 23.29 |
| state index | 1.19 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 2.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.40 |