← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 59% | 51% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +5% |
| Almeria win | 18% | 24% | 5.66 | value: +37% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.75 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Almeria −0.75 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.21 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Sergio Akieme · Almeria |
| 12' | 🟨 | Sergio Akieme · Almeria |
| 32' | 🟨 | Loïc Badé · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lucas Ocampos · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Ocampos · Sevilla FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Chumi · Almeria |
| 73' | ⚽ | Érik Lamela · Sevilla FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Érik Lamela · Sevilla FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Ely · Almeria |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 🟨 |
| Léo Baptistão · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marko Dmitrović · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 11.00 | 710.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1697.15 | 1582.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.61 | -33.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | -0.64 |
| solidity v1 | -1.00 | -1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.28 | 23.29 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.34 |