← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 38% | 36% | 2.59 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 33% | 34% | 3.02 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Elche CF +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Valladolid +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 56% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 44% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Pere Milla · Elche CF |
| 4' | ⚽ | Cyle Larin · Valladolid |
| 19' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Elche CF |
| 71' | 🟨 | Tete Morente · Elche CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Óscar Plano · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Omar Mascarell · Elche CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martin Hongla · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martin Hongla · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cyle Larin · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Valladolid |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero |
| 🟨 |
| Roque Mesa · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟥 | Martin Hongla · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟥 | Roque Mesa · Valladolid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tete Morente · Elche CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 10.00 | 648.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1499.88 | 1589.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.60 | 5.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.57 |
| league points | 12.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -1.86 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.94 | — |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.67 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.42 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.06 |