← Primera Division 2022-23 · Fri, Mar 10, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadiz win | 39% | 30% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 51% | 2.88 | value: +46% ⚠ |
| Getafe CF win | 27% | 20% | 3.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Cadiz −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 72% | 63% | 1.36 | fair |
| Over | 28% | 37% | 3.40 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 39' | ⚽ | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 44' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Getafe CF |
| 59' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Cadiz |
| 60' | 🟨 | Fali · Cadiz |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Munir El Haddadi · Getafe CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 80' | 🟥 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cadiz | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla |
| 🟨 |
| Jeremías Ledesma · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟥 | Iza Carcelén · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 433.00 | 525.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1637.05 | 1640.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.45 | 18.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| league points | 26.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | -1.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 30.18 | 28.24 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.00 |