← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martínez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 36% | 32% | 2.76 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | 3.01 | value: +5% |
| Girona win | 32% | 33% | 3.06 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF +0 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Girona +0 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 59% | 1.52 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 41% | 2.69 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 12' | 🟨 | Javier Hernández · Girona |
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 24' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Riquelme · Girona |
| 43' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ángel Algobia · Getafe CF |
| 54' | ⚽ | Valentín Castellanos · Girona |
| 69' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 80' | ⚽ | Miguel Gutiérrez · Girona |
| 90' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 24 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 🟨 |
| Luis Milla · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Gutiérrez · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Santiago Bueno · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 519.00 | 611.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1631.43 | 1648.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.79 | 24.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.81 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 22.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 4.71 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.38 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.39 | 26.79 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.57 |