← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 26, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 58% | 52% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +8% |
| Girona win | 17% | 21% | 5.70 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −0.75 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Girona −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Aleix García · Girona |
| 14' | 🟨 | Óscar de Marcos · Athletic Club |
| 16' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · Girona |
| 19' | ⚽ (og) | Óscar de Marcos · Girona |
| 28' | 🟨 | Santiago Bueno · Girona |
| 35' | ⚽ | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 36' | 🟨 | Arnau Martínez · Girona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yeray Álvarez · Athletic Club |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Mikel Vesga · Girona |
| 72' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Girona |
| 77' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | San Mamés Barria |
| 🟨 |
| Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 85' | 🟨 | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 89' | ⚽ | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aitor Paredes · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulo Gazzaniga · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 270.00 | 605.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.93 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1737.17 | 1634.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.69 | 5.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| league points | 32.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.81 | 8.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 27.35 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.43 |