← Primera Division 2022-23 · Fri, Feb 24, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 46% | 45% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 26% | 29% | 3.80 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Elche CF +0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Real Betis Balompié +0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Pape Cheikh · Elche CF |
| 6' | 🟨 | Abner Vinícius · Real Betis Balompié |
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Fidel · Elche CF |
| 9' | ⚽ | Lucas Boyé · Elche CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Enzo Roco · Elche CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Elche CF |
| 57' | 🟥 | Lisandro Magallán · Elche CF |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Borja Iglesias · Real Betis Balompié |
| 68' | ⚽ | Juan Miranda · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Roco · Elche CF |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero |
| 🟨 |
| Helibelton Palacios · Elche CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Enzo Roco · Elche CF |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Willian José · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 115.00 | 937.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1490.19 | 1741.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.40 | -2.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.86 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 9.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 5.29 | 6.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.41 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.73 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 27.52 |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.29 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.11 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 2.09 |