← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 18, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 37% | 40% | 2.72 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 33% | 33% | 2.90 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 30% | 27% | 3.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Mallorca +0 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 61% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 39% | 3.00 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Tino Kadewere · Mallorca |
| 21' | 🟨 | Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 21' | 🟥 | Manu Trigueros · Villarreal CF |
| 37' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 43' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 50' | ⚽ | Samuel Chukwueze · Villarreal CF |
| 56' | ⚽ | Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 63' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Mallorca |
| 72' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Visit Mallorca Estadi |
| 🟨 |
| José Copete · Mallorca |
| 89' | 🟨 | Matija Nastasić · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 354.00 | 962.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1637.04 | 1758.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.60 | -42.53 |
| eye test v1 | -1.55 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| league points | 28.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.97 | 30.25 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 1.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.35 | 1.55 |