← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 58% | 56% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.02 | value: +14% |
| Valladolid win | 18% | 15% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Valladolid −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 46% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 54% | 2.00 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Juanmi · Real Betis Balompié |
| 5' | 🟨 | Javi Sánchez · Valladolid |
| 12' | 🟨 | Abner Vinícius · Real Betis Balompié |
| 30' | ⚽ | Cyle Larin · Valladolid |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Canales · Real Betis Balompié |
| 55' | 🟨 | Álvaro Aguado · Valladolid |
| 55' | 🟨 | Monchu · Valladolid |
| 77' | 🟨 | Guido Rodríguez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 79' | 🟨 | Luis Pérez · Valladolid |
| 89' | 🟨 | Martin Hongla · Valladolid |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| 🟨 |
| Edgar González · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 931.00 | 627.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1791.41 | 1636.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.00 | 9.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 34.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 29.02 | 26.09 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.06 |