← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 12, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 36% | 27% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 43% | 2.88 | value: +24% |
| Getafe CF win | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Getafe CF +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 65% | 1.43 | fair |
| Over | 32% | 35% | 3.01 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 38' | ⚽ (og) | Mauro Arambarri · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 43' | 🟨 | Óscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 45' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Álvaro García · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 50' | 🟨 | Iván Balliu · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 54' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 54' | 🟥 | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 77' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Gastón Álvarez · Getafe CF |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 499.00 | 925.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1628.72 | 1667.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.46 | 21.93 |
| eye test v1 | -1.29 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.83 |
| league points | 18.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.81 | 5.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 27.79 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 0.96 |