← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 5, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 64% | 72% | 1.50 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.34 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 13% | 8% | 7.95 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Valladolid −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 56% | 1.89 | value: +6% |
| Over | 48% | 44% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 27' | 🟨 | Javi Sánchez · Valladolid |
| 31' | 🟨 | Lucas Olaza · Valladolid |
| 38' | 🟨 | Óscar Plano · Valladolid |
| 40' | 🟨 | Martin Hongla · Valladolid |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ander Barrenetxea · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 69' | 🟨 | Asier Illarramendi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 73' | ⚽ | Cyle Larin · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Fernández · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cyle Larin · Valladolid |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Reale Arena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 1527.00 | 614.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1830.23 | 1621.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.54 | -19.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| league points | 39.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 26.50 |
| state index | 1.33 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 2.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 0.95 |