← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Feb 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 53% | 67% | 1.84 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.57 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 19% | 10% | 5.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca +0.75 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Real Madrid CF +0.75 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 53% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 47% | 2.27 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (og) | Nacho Fernández · Mallorca |
| 44' | 🟨 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dani Ceballos · Real Madrid CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Mallorca |
| 64' | 🟨 | Federico Valverde · Real Madrid CF |
| 72' | 🟨 | Amath Ndiaye · Mallorca |
| 80' | 🟨 | Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Mallorca |
| 81' | 🟨 | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 20 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 12 |
| 29 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Visit Mallorca Estadi |
| 🟨 |
| Mariano Díaz · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 341.00 | 614.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1628.13 | 1982.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.97 | -3.30 |
| eye test v1 | -1.23 | 0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| league points | 25.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.24 | 28.10 |
| state index | 0.04 | 1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 0.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.47 | 1.56 |