← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: José Munuera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 57% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.99 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 18% | 19% | 5.35 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF +0.75 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Elche CF +0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Pere Milla · Elche CF |
| 20' | 🟨 | Helibelton Palacios · Elche CF |
| 23' | ⚽ | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 25' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Elche CF |
| 37' | 🟨 | Omar Mascarell · Elche CF |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Pere Milla · Elche CF |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Pere Milla · Elche CF |
| 59' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jorge Cuenca · Villarreal CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Fidel · Elche CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero |
| coach days | 95.00 | 948.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1479.28 | 1738.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.65 | 6.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 6.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 4.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.32 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.36 | 26.65 |
| state index | -1.34 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 0.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.78 |