← Primera Division 2022-23 · Fri, Feb 3, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentín Pizarro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 70% | 70% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 9% | 9% | 10.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −1.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Cadiz −1.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 51% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 49% | 2.14 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 25' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Escalante · Cadiz |
| 30' | 🟨 | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 35' | ⚽ | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 44' | ⚽ | Yeray Álvarez · Athletic Club |
| 57' | 🟨 | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 57' | 🟥 | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 75' | ⚽ | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Cadiz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | San Mamés Barria |
| coach days | 247.00 | 398.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.44 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1668.90 | 1569.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.31 | 19.56 |
| eye test v1 | -1.28 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| league points | 26.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 5.10 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 30.05 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.72 | 1.01 |