← Primera Division 2022-23 · Fri, Jan 27, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 40% | 41% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 29% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Almeria −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 60% | 1.75 | value: +5% |
| Over | 45% | 40% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lucas Robertone · Almeria |
| 44' | 🟨 | Óscar Gil · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 55' | 🟨 | Vinícius Souza · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 57' | 🟨 | Javi Puado · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 61' | ⚽ | Léo Baptistão · Almeria |
| 77' | ⚽ | Francisco Portillo · Almeria |
| 78' | 🟨 | Francisco Portillo · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Íñigo Eguaras · Almeria |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joselu · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 666.00 | 271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1647.01 | 1645.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.08 | 24.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 35.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 28.31 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |