← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Jan 22, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos del Cerro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 55% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 4.05 | fair |
| Girona win | 20% | 19% | 4.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Villarreal CF −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 51% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 49% | 2.28 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Santiago Bueno · Girona |
| 18' | 🟨 | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 25' | 🟨 | Yéremy Pino · Villarreal CF |
| 32' | 🟨 | Miguel Gutiérrez · Girona |
| 37' | 🟨 | Pau Torres · Villarreal CF |
| 40' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Santiago Bueno · Girona |
| 78' | 🟥 | Santiago Bueno · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| 🟨 |
| Juanpe · Girona |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Dani Parejo · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 935.00 | 570.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1798.66 | 1628.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.67 | 36.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 28.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 8.71 | 7.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 30.65 | 25.88 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |