← Primera Division 2022-23 · Fri, Jan 6, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 62% | 61% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 16% | 4.21 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 15% | 23% | 6.50 | value: +51% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz −1 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Valencia CF −1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 53% | 1.97 | value: +5% |
| Under | 50% | 47% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz |
| 20' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 34' | 🟨 | Edinson Cavani · Valencia CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Fali · Cadiz |
| 52' | 🟨 | Justin Kluivert · Valencia CF |
| 56' | 🟨 | Brian Ocampo · Cadiz |
| 60' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Cadiz |
| 62' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Iza Carcelén · Cadiz |
| 78' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| Iván Alejo · Cadiz |
| 81' | 🟨 | Yunus Musah · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 5.00 | 370.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1645.40 | 1550.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.82 | 2.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.10 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| league points | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 7.07 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 30.05 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |