← Primera Division 2022-23 · Thu, Dec 29, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Girona win | 45% | 38% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.46 | value: +10% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 27% | 30% | 3.69 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Girona −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.25 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 45% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadi Municipal de Montilivi |