← Primera Division 2022-23 · Wed, Nov 9, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 47% | 35% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 44% | 3.20 | value: +40% |
| Getafe CF win | 23% | 21% | 4.39 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Almeria −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 62% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 38% | 2.62 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Getafe CF |
| 8' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Ely · Almeria |
| 26' | ⚽ | Léo Baptistão · Almeria |
| 27' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 35' | 🟨 | Léo Baptistão · Almeria |
| 53' | 🟨 | César de la Hoz · Almeria |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lucas Robertone · Almeria |
| 76' | 🟨 | Munir El Haddadi · Getafe CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Fernando Martínez · Almeria |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Ely · Almeria |
| 87' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 8 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.40 |
| venue | Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos |
| 🟥 |
| Rodrigo Ely · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Largie Ramazani · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Srđan Babić · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juan Iglesias · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 587.00 | 404.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1642.93 | 1643.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.99 | 11.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 26.46 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |