← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Nov 6, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 46% | 45% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.32 | value: +5% |
| Sevilla FC win | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sevilla FC −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 60% | 1.73 | value: +4% |
| Over | 43% | 40% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Marcos Acuña · Sevilla FC |
| 38' | 🟥 | Gonzalo Montiel · Sevilla FC |
| 43' | ⚽ (og) | Jesús Navas · Real Betis Balompié |
| 45' | 🟨 | William Carvalho · Real Betis Balompié |
| 45' | 🟥 | Nabil Fekir · Real Betis Balompié |
| 49' | 🟥 | Borja Iglesias · Real Betis Balompié |
| 66' | 🟨 | Érik Lamela · Sevilla FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Papu Gómez · Sevilla FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| 83' |
| 🟨 |
| Luiz Henrique · Real Betis Balompié |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alex Telles · Sevilla FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Álex Moreno · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Claudio Bravo · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.40 |
| coach days | 827.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1833.36 | 1775.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.76 | -22.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.40 | 46.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 8.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.14 | 29.56 |
| state index | 0.97 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |