← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Nov 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 54% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.57 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 18% | 18% | 5.46 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Villarreal CF −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 53% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 47% | 2.31 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 41' | 🟨 | Iddrisu Baba · Mallorca |
| 47' | 🟨 | Giovanni González · Mallorca |
| 49' | 🟨 | Samuel Chukwueze · Villarreal CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kang-in Lee · Mallorca |
| 58' | 🟨 | Alberto Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 60' | 🟨 | Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 64' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 71' | 🟨 | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 74' | 🟨 | Pau Torres · Villarreal CF |
| 75' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
| ⚽ |
| Amath Ndiaye · Mallorca |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 858.00 | 250.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1797.99 | 1605.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.79 | 3.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.70 |
| league points | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 8.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 25.88 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.41 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |