← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Nov 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernández
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 45% | 41% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 38% | 3.03 | value: +14% |
| Cadiz win | 23% | 21% | 4.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Cadiz −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 69% | 61% | 1.42 | fair |
| Over | 31% | 39% | 3.20 | value: +26% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · Getafe CF |
| 28' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Cadiz |
| 30' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Portu · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juan Iglesias · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Portu · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Portu · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Gastón Álvarez · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟥 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| Luis Hernández · Cadiz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 400.00 | 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1646.62 | 1599.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.28 | 5.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| league points | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 4.71 | 6.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 28.87 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |