← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 29, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 62% | 59% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.64 | value: +18% |
| Valencia CF win | 17% | 15% | 5.93 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona +1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Valencia CF +1 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 37% | 2.56 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Eric García · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcos Alonso · FC Barcelona |
| 67' | 🟨 | Samuel Lino · Valencia CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Hugo Guillamón · Valencia CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Pablo Gavi · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samu Castillejo · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dimitri Foulquier · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| coach days | 150.00 | 362.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1686.25 | 1951.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.63 | 13.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.40 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.85 |
| league points | 15.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 90.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 2.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | 2.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.57 | 26.00 |
| state index | 0.28 | 1.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 1.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |