← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 15, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 50% | 52% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.33 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 21% | 21% | 4.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Girona −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 62% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 38% | 2.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 23' | 🟨 | Fede San Emeterio · Cadiz |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aleix García · Girona |
| 46' | ⚽ | Álex Fernández · Cadiz |
| 54' | 🟨 | Santiago Bueno · Girona |
| 63' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz |
| 64' | 🟨 | Arnau Martínez · Girona |
| 69' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · Girona |
| 76' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfonso Espino · Cadiz |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.14 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadi Municipal de Montilivi |
| Christian Stuani · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 471.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1591.61 | 1592.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.33 | 1.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -1.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | — |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.20 |
| squad age | 26.82 | 29.69 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |