← Primera Division 2022-23 · Mon, Oct 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentín Pizarro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 36% | 41% | 2.72 | value: +12% |
| Elche CF win | 32% | 27% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Elche CF +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 64% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 36% | 2.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Giovanni González · Mallorca |
| 15' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Ponce · Elche CF |
| 15' | ⚽ | Ezequiel Ponce · Elche CF |
| 61' | 🟥 | Lucas Boyé · Elche CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Helibelton Palacios · Elche CF |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 73' | 🟨 | Omar Mascarell · Elche CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Clément Grenier · Mallorca |
| 79' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 80' | 🟨 | Pedro Bigas · Elche CF |
| 85' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero |
| 🟥 |
| Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 87' | 🟨 | Predrag Rajković · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Battaglia · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 343.00 | 223.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1563.08 | 1602.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.67 | 20.73 |
| eye test v1 | -1.43 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.14 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.89 | 26.13 |
| state index | -1.06 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |