← Primera Division 2022-23 · Mon, Oct 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 63% | 60% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.35 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 15% | 19% | 6.75 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Elche CF −1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 51% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 49% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Diego González · Elche CF |
| 32' | ⚽ | Lucas Boyé · Elche CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Óscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 40' | ⚽ | Sergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 47' | 🟨 | Domingos Quina · Elche CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Édgar Badía · Elche CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Lucas Boyé · Elche CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Pol Lirola · Elche CF |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Ponce · Elche CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Tete Morente · Elche CF |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| 🟨 |
| Carlos Clerc · Elche CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Unai López · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 793.00 | 336.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1552.27 | 1518.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.05 | -29.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 16.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.42 | 26.79 |
| state index | -0.08 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |