← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 40% | 32% | 2.48 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 40% | 3.05 | value: +21% |
| Valladolid win | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 60% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 40% | 2.53 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Monchu · Valladolid |
| 11' | 🟨 | Kike Pérez · Valladolid |
| 14' | 🟨 | Joaquín Fernández · Valladolid |
| 18' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio León · Valladolid |
| 29' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
| 31' | ⚽ | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 37' | ⚽ | Sergio León · Valladolid |
| 48' | ⚽ | Óscar Plano · Valladolid |
| 69' | 🟨 | David Soria · Getafe CF |
| 72' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 23 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 🟨 |
| Álvaro Aguado · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordi Masip · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 365.00 | 487.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1593.09 | 1591.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.93 | -14.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 13.09 | 14.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.36 | — |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |