← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, Sep 11, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 74% | 73% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 18% | 5.78 | value: +5% |
| Mallorca win | 9% | 8% | 11.17 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −1.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Mallorca −1.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 67% | 1.68 | value: +12% |
| Under | 43% | 33% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Matija Nastasić · Mallorca |
| 25' | 🟨 | Ferland Mendy · Real Madrid CF |
| 25' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
| 35' | 🟨 | Federico Valverde · Real Madrid CF |
| 35' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 39' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 45' | ⚽ | Federico Valverde · Real Madrid CF |
| 72' | ⚽ | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | David Alaba · Real Madrid CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Antonio Sánchez · Mallorca |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.40 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| 🟨 |
| Martin Valjent · Mallorca |
| 89' | ⚽ | Rodrygo · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Antonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 467.00 | 194.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1984.16 | 1598.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.94 | 38.04 |
| eye test v1 | 1.62 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.65 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 7.91 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.75 | 25.28 |
| state index | 1.79 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |