← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Sep 10, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 38% | 30% | 2.61 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 32% | 35% | 3.04 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.23 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Sevilla FC +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 59% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 41% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Érik Lamela · Sevilla FC |
| 13' | 🟨 | Óscar Gil · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 26' | ⚽ | José Ángel Carmona · Sevilla FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Érik Lamela · Sevilla FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Joselu · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcos Acuña · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | José Ángel Carmona · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Joselu · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 57' | 🟨 | Vinícius Souza · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 62' | ⚽ | Martin Braithwaite · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 84' | 🟨 | Érik Lamela · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | 🟥 | Érik Lamela · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Youssef En-Nesyri · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fernando · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 132.00 | 1197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1623.17 | 1802.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.75 | -44.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| league points | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 28.75 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |