← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, Aug 20, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 41% | 36% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.24 | value: +5% |
| Mallorca win | 29% | 32% | 3.37 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Real Betis Balompié +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 53% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | William Carvalho · Real Betis Balompié |
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Borja Iglesias · Real Betis Balompié |
| 36' | 🟨 | Juanmi · Real Betis Balompié |
| 45' | 🟨 | Clément Grenier · Mallorca |
| 56' | ⚽ | Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nabil Fekir · Real Betis Balompié |
| 66' | 🟨 | Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 70' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 70' | 🟨 | Martin Valjent · Mallorca |
| 70' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · Real Betis Balompié |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Visit Mallorca Estadi |
| 73' |
| 🟨 |
| Rodrigo Battaglia · Mallorca |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Borja Iglesias · Real Betis Balompié |
| 82' | 🟨 | Rober González · Real Betis Balompié |
| 84' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
| 84' | 🟨 | Guido Rodríguez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rui Silva · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Loren Morón · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 172.00 | 749.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1587.62 | 1793.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.11 | 29.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 5.08 | 4.92 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.23 | 27.86 |
| state index | 0.33 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |