← Primera Division 2022-23 · Fri, Aug 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 37% | 34% | 2.61 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 31% | 36% | 3.25 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona +0 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid +0 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 65% | 1.54 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 35% | 2.62 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand