← Primera Division 2022-23 · Mon, Aug 15, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 60% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.07 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 16% | 15% | 6.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Elche CF −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Real Betis Balompié −1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 46% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 54% | 2.06 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Nabil Fekir · Real Betis Balompié |
| 16' | 🟨 | Pere Milla · Elche CF |
| 16' | 🟥 | John Nwankwo · Elche CF |
| 22' | 🟨 | Aitor Ruibal · Real Betis Balompié |
| 28' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · Real Betis Balompié |
| 30' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Elche CF |
| 39' | ⚽ | Juanmi · Real Betis Balompié |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fidel · Elche CF |
| 60' | ⚽ | Juanmi · Real Betis Balompié |
| 64' | 🟨 | Roger Martí · Elche CF |
| 78' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| 🟨 |
| Juanmi · Real Betis Balompié |
| 81' | 🟨 | Josan · Elche CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Johan Mojica · Elche CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 744.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1723.95 | 1555.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.69 | -13.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 30.25 | 29.29 |
| state index | 0.90 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |