← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sun, May 15, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 41% | 47% | 2.36 | value: +12% |
| Levante UD win | 33% | 29% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Levante UD +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Deportivo Alavés +0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 54% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 46% | 2.48 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 29' | 🟨 | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 35' | 🟨 | Marcelo Saracchi · Levante UD |
| 36' | ⚽ | Joselu · Deportivo Alavés |
| 38' | 🟨 | Pere Pons · Deportivo Alavés |
| 53' | ⚽ | Óscar Duarte · Levante UD |
| 54' | 🟨 | Miguel de la Fuente · Deportivo Alavés |
| 58' | 🟨 | Mickaël Malsa · Levante UD |
| 71' | 🟨 | Edgar Méndez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 74' | ⚽ | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 81' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 8 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
| 🟨 |
| Son · Levante UD |
| 86' | 🟨 | Roberto Soldado · Levante UD |
| 86' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Deportivo Alavés |
| 89' | 🟨 | Marc Tenas · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Coke · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Óscar Duarte · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Lejeune · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟥 | Gonzalo Escalante · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 195.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1607.94 | 1569.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.51 | 17.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| league points | 29.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 4.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.88 | 27.76 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |