← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, May 7, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Athletic Club win | 68% | 64% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.63 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 11% | 15% | 8.95 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Valencia CF −1.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Athletic Club −1.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 50% | 57% | 1.95 | value: +11% |
| Over | 50% | 43% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand