← Primera Division 2021-22 · Sat, May 7, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 49% | 44% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +11% |
| Granada win | 23% | 25% | 4.41 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Mallorca −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 58% | 1.80 | value: +4% |
| Over | 46% | 42% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Luis Javier Suárez · Granada |
| 28' | ⚽ | Salva Sevilla · Mallorca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 46' | ⚽ | Sergio Escudero · Granada |
| 55' | ⚽ | Antonio Puertas · Granada |
| 58' | ⚽ | Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca |
| 60' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Granada |
| 67' | 🟨 | Martin Valjent · Mallorca |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jorge Molina · Granada |
| 78' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | Visit Mallorca Estadi |
| ⚽ |
| Myrto Uzuni · Granada |
| 83' | 🟨 | Njegoš Petrović · Granada |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jorge Molina · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 67.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1563.51 | 1584.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.74 | -18.01 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 47.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| league points | 32.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 5.71 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.53 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 27.59 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |