← Primera Division 2021-22 · Thu, Apr 21, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentín Pizarro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 38% | 39% | 2.61 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 30% | 29% | 3.27 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz +0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Athletic Club +0.25 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 61% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 39% | 2.75 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Juan Cala · Cadiz |
| 3' | ⚽ | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 9' | 🟨 | Anthony Lozano · Cadiz |
| 21' | 🟨 | Víctor Chust · Cadiz |
| 22' | ⚽ | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 33' | ⚽ | Mikel Vesga · Athletic Club |
| 50' | 🟨 | Iñigo Martínez · Athletic Club |
| 56' | ⚽ | Lucas Pérez · Cadiz |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mikel Vesga · Athletic Club |
| 69' | 🟨 | Daniel Vivian · Athletic Club |
| 71' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 27 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cadiz | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.61 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla |
| 🟨 |
| Mikel Vesga · Athletic Club |
| 71' | 🟥 | Mikel Vesga · Athletic Club |
| 87' | ⚽ | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Unai Vencedor · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 110.00 | 475.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1604.19 | 1710.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.60 | -22.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.61 |
| league points | 31.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 4.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 29.12 | 25.77 |
| state index | 0.48 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |